S&P Global Mobility projects that US auto sales in March
will crest over 1.4 million units – just the second time since May
2021 that monthly volume has reached this level.
Key Takeaways
- US Auto Sales for March 2024 projected at 1.47 million
units - Dealer advertised inventories were up to 2.62 million
units - March BEV share expected to reach 8%
- S&P Global Mobility projects calendar-year 2024 light
vehicle sales volume of 15.96 million units, a 3% increase from the
2023 tally
With volume for the month projected at 1.47 million units, March
2024 US auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales
pace of 15.8 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR).
This would bring the SAAR average in the first quarter of the year
to a level of 15.5 million units. While progress from a year-ago
reading of 15 million units, it would reflect a step down from the
15.7 million unit reading of the fourth quarter of 2023, reflective
of the volatile nature of the current auto demand environment.
“With inventory growing, incentives rising, and quarter-end
sales targets to be met, March sales volume will be relatively
positive, rising to over 1.4 million units for just the second time
in the past 34 months,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at
S&P Global Mobility. “However, since the second quarter of
2023, the pace of sales has been in a prolonged holding period,
given the current purchase environment facing auto consumers.
High-interest rates, slowly receding vehicle prices, and uncertain
economic conditions continue to push against any consistent upshift
for demand levels.”
Regarding inventory trends, Matt Trommer, associate director of
Market Reporting at S&P Global Mobility said, “At the beginning
of March, available dealer advertised inventories were up to 2.62
million units, an increase of 56% over last year and up 5% compared
to the beginning of February 2023. Model-year (MY) 2024 vehicles
represented 84% of that inventory, so pockets of MY2023 vehicles
remain, setting up the potential for additional spring clearance
activity.”
The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2024 reflects
sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales.
Production levels are expected to continue to develop, especially
early in the year as some automakers look to continue to restock in
the wake of production shutdowns late in 2023 and decent December
2023 sales volume.
“Advancing production levels set the stage for incentives and
inventory to continue to develop, potentially enticing new vehicle
buyers who remain on the sidelines due to higher interest rates,
but it will be a bumpy ride and month-to-month sales volatility is
likely,” said Hopson. “S&P Global Mobility projects
calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume of 15.96 million
units, a 3% increase from the 2023 tally.”
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer-term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. March BEV share is
expected to reach 8%, similar to the month prior reading as
automakers, dealers, and consumers continue to digest the changes
to IRA Federal tax credits to begin the new year. BEV share is
expected to advance over the next several periods, pending the
rollouts of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda
Prologue, and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for market introductions
over the first half of 2024.
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.